— Topic —

    Social Media

    17 receipts tracked • 31% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    17 receipts on Social Media

    Browse all →

    RECEIPT #BYRON-

    MAR 26, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Byron Sharp
    “Ten predictions for marketing in 2050, including: "social media sweat shops will disappear," light buyers will matter enormously to revenue and growth, and "some brands will destroy themselves by optimising the wrong things, by pointlessly just believing things rather than testing."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. 2050 horizon; recheck against social content operations and light-buyer research over time.

    RECEIPT #JEREMI

    JAN 30, 2021

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jeremiah Owyang
    “Market prediction, January 2021: "Social audio skyrockets due to quarantine during 2021 and beyond."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Clubhouse peaked in February 2021 and collapsed within a year; social audio survived only as absorbed features (X Spaces) rather than as a skyrocketing category.

    RECEIPT #SHERYL

    JUN 15, 2010

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Sheryl Sandberg
    “If you want to know what people like us will do tomorrow, you look at what teenagers are doing today - and with only 11% of teens emailing daily, she predicted email is "probably going away."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Sixteen years later email remains a top-ROI marketing channel and the internet’s universal identity layer; teen behavior did not generalize into email’s disappearance.

    RECEIPT #JOE-PU

    JAN 06, 2025

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Joe Pulizzi
    “I predict Bluesky will be amazing for a small group of people, but will never come close to the user base of Twitter/X.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Through 2025-26 Bluesky grew into a loyal niche of tens of millions of users while remaining an order of magnitude below X’s user base.

    RECEIPT #JOE-PU

    JAN 06, 2025

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Joe Pulizzi
    “In 2025, I see X growing revenue for the first time since Elon took over. I also anticipate that TRUTH social will fold into X sometime during the year.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Truth Social did not fold into X in 2025 or 2026; it remains a separate Trump Media property. (The X-revenue half is murkier - X is private and figures are estimates.)

    RECEIPT #LINDA-

    SEP 27, 2023

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Linda Yaccarino
    “Now that I have immersed myself in the business, and we have a good set of eyes on what is predictable, what's coming is that it looks like in early '24, we will be turning a profit.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    X did not turn a profit in early 2024; reporting through 2024 showed continued losses and heavy debt service, with ad revenue recovering only partially from the post-acquisition advertiser exodus.

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “TikTok Stays... Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    www.cmswire.com

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    CMSWire

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “TikTok Stays... Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    www.cmswire.com

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    CMSWire

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “These social networks are sacrificing urgency for engagement, and there’s a hidden cost to that. ... the 'global town squares’ of ol’ will start feel less relevant to important, global events.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    CMSWire

    RECEIPT #GARTNE

    JAN 03, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Gartner
    “By 2025, 50% of consumers will significantly limit or abandon social media due to perceived decay in quality, including GenAI integration (70%+ see harm to user experience).”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Recent user discussions in December 2023 validate Gartner's forecast of a 50% reduction in social media usage by 2025, with trends materializing faster than anticipated, although concrete 2025 statistics are not yet available.

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “Social Media Starts to Feel Less Relevant... There will be some exceptions, but the "‘global town squares’ of ol’" will start feel less relevant to important, global events.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction came true as engagement rates on major social media platforms collapsed, and users migrated to private spaces, making "global town squares" less relevant as suggested.

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “Bluesky Hype Fades... I’m not saying Bluesky will disappear in 2025, but its limited potential should become clear.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    CMSWire

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    DEC 23, 2024

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    “TikTok Stays... To me, the most likely scenario, is Trump finds a way to get the government to accept that TikTok has fulfilled its divestment obligations by walling off U.S. data (pay attention to TikTok’s U.S. Distributed Service unit) and the app stays on U.S. app stores.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    TikTok did not stay in the U.S. solely by walling off U.S. data, as courts rejected this measure. Instead, a qualified divestiture was mandated and is in progress via a joint venture with majority U.S. ownership, as evidenced by Executive Order 14310 and the Supreme Court upholding the law without data-wall exceptions.

    RECEIPT #ELON-M

    JUL 23, 2023

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Elon Musk
    “X is the future state of unlimited interactivity — centered in audio, video, messaging, payments/banking — creating a global marketplace for ideas, goods, services, and opportunities.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    This prediction is too early to assess as the specified timeframe of 2026 has not yet arrived, and the provided evidence does not cover the relevant period for X's development.

    RECEIPT #PETER-

    APR 28, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Peter Shankman
    “I think the number one reason is for parents is we don't think it's that dangerous, so we let them on. Uh and the second reason is because they can create these Pinterest boards that are only viewable by their friends that we've approved to be on to be their friends.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.