Receipt

    Filed June 23, 2026

    Partially right.

    The short version

    Brian Wieser predicted on September 1, 2024: “...following his original 2025 benchmark of 5.3% growth in September 2024.” Verdict: Partially right. This 5.3% forecast was later downgraded (to 4.5% and then 3.6%) but then re-upgraded to 6.0% based on stronger-than-expected Q1 and Q2 2025 data, making the original forecast closer to the later bullish revision than the interim downgrade.

    Prediction by

    Brian Wieser

    On September 1, 2024

    ...following his original 2025 benchmark of 5.3% growth in September 2024.

    Follow-up

    This 5.3% forecast was later downgraded (to 4.5% and then 3.6%) but then re-upgraded to 6.0% based on stronger-than-expected Q1 and Q2 2025 data, making the original forecast closer to the later bullish revision than the interim downgrade.

    Original source

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