— Topic —

    Platforms

    5 receipts tracked • 80% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    5 receipts on Platforms

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    RECEIPT #BEN-TH

    JUN 12, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ben Thompson
    I was bracing for Apple to have Sam Altman in a video and just generally introduce a really clumsy OpenAI and/or ChatGPT integration where Apple is ceding like 95% of the AI tasks to ChatGPT, when in fact, what’s actually happening is Apple will execute 95% of the AI features that we saw on Monday, and then 5% will be handled by OpenAI.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Apple's announced strategy largely aligns with Thompson's prediction, emphasizing Apple's own AI processing for most tasks, with OpenAI handling specific integrations. Precise quantification (95%/5%) is not publicly available.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    podscripts.co

    RECEIPT #MARK-R

    NOV 19, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Mark Ritson
    2024 was also the year that platforms stopped selling personalisation and started selling mass reach much harder

    FOLLOW-UP

    A later 2025 source shows Ritson still emphasizing against hyper-personalization and towards broad activation, which supports the directional shift of the forecast. However, the supplied materials don't independently prove the market-wide claim of platforms 'stopping to sell personalization' entirely.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Mi3

    RECEIPT #ARI-PA

    FEB 02, 2026

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    Closed loop platforms outperform the open web because scale, identity, and measurement live in one system.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Closed-loop ecosystems (walled gardens, retail media) continue to be the fastest-growing segments in digital advertising, delivering measurable outcomes.