The short version

Joshua Lowcock predicted on January 24, 2024: “Given everything that’s happening in the industry, from cookie deprecation to device ID deprecation to privacy regulation, long-tail publishers don’t have a long history left in them. They’re destined to die… the advertising ecosystem as it’s being rewritten just cannot sustain them.” Verdict: Still evolving. While the 'destined to die' part is too…

Prediction by

Joshua Lowcock

On January 24, 2024

“Given everything that’s happening in the industry, from cookie deprecation to device ID deprecation to privacy regulation, long-tail publishers don’t have a long history left in them. They’re destined to die… the advertising ecosystem as it’s being rewritten just cannot sustain them.”

Follow-up

While the 'destined to die' part is too absolute to fully confirm yet, the existential pressure on long-tail publishers due to cookie and device ID deprecation, alongside privacy regulation, is clearly observable. Many smaller, ad-dependent publishers face significant challenges, consolidation, or pivots, although some have survived by building direct models.

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