— Topic —
15 receipts tracked • 88% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #ARI-PA
JAN 23, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Ari Paparo“the era of like easy cheap targeting is sort”
FOLLOW-UP
Later commentary states 'targeting is becoming harder as third-party cookies and browser/privacy changes reduce signal availability,' which aligns with the prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Is the AdTech Market Cooling? | The Marketecture PodcastRECEIPT #ARI-PA
AUG 30, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Ari Paparo“Google is going to eventually deprecate this third party cookie it’s going away at some point”
FOLLOW-UP
Chrome’s cookie deprecation remained an open industry issue in later 2025 discussions, with Paparo still treating it as an ongoing transition rather than a finished event.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.youtube.comRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“Third: All scaled social media services will offer ad‑free subscriptions in the EU. ... I believe that, by the end of 2024, every scaled social media platform will utilize a pay‑or‑okay model in the EU.”
FOLLOW-UP
While Meta and TikTok introduced pay-or-okay models in the EU by the end of 2024, not every scaled social media platform universally adopted such a model.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
mobiledevmemo.comEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #TAMEKA
MAR 09, 2023
PREDICTION BY
Tameka Kee“I think it’s only going to continue. I don’t know what is coming, but I do know that we’re not going back to doing business the way that we were before.”
FOLLOW-UP
While there have been significant movements towards greater data privacy and regulation since this prediction, the landscape continues to evolve with new technologies and legislative efforts.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
jmacpr.comRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 03, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“Third: All scaled social media services will offer ad-free subscriptions in the EU.”
FOLLOW-UP
While Meta implemented a 'pay-or-okay' model, not all scaled social media platforms in the EU had implemented a fully comparable ad-free subscription model by the end of 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
mobiledevmemo.comRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 03, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“First: The GAID will not be deprecated in 2024.”
FOLLOW-UP
Google's GAID was not deprecated in 2024. Deprecation timelines were pushed out, and GAID remained in place.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
mobiledevmemo.comRECEIPT #ERIC-S
APR 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“Retail media networks proliferated in the Everything is an ad network paradigm because privacy restrictions have starved social media advertising platforms of the user-level data that rendered their targeting mechanisms so powerful and appealing.”
FOLLOW-UP
Retail media networks, as exemplified by Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, and Uber, have continued rapid growth since 2024, validating the 'everything is an ad network' thesis in the context of privacy restrictions impacting social media advertising.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AlikeAudience BlogRECEIPT #ERIC-S
APR 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“Retail media networks proliferated in the Everything is an ad network paradigm because privacy restrictions have starved social media advertising platforms of the user‑level data that rendered their targeting mechanisms so powerful and appealing.”
FOLLOW-UP
Retail media networks continued to proliferate in 2024-2025, and other sectors developed ad businesses based on first-party data, supporting the continuation of this trend.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev Memo - Everything is an Ad NetworkRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“The GAID will not be broadly deprecated in 2024. … Given the lack of traction with Privacy Sandbox on Android, I don’t foresee the deprecation of GAID taking place broadly (that is, outside of a test) this year.”
FOLLOW-UP
Google did not broadly deprecate GAID in 2024; it continued to be available outside limited Privacy Sandbox tests.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev Memo - 2024 predictions for mobile marketingRECEIPT #JASON-
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Jason Swick“Google was going to delay the the sunsetting of thirdparty cookies and guess what it happened of course it did”
FOLLOW-UP
Google officially delayed the deprecation of third-party cookies.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.youtube.comRECEIPT #ARI-PA
FEB 02, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Ari Paparo“Experimentation and advanced modeling are replacing traditional attribution as cookies disappear.”
FOLLOW-UP
Marketers have increasingly adopted incrementality testing, geo-lift experiments, and ML-based models in place of cookie-dependent multi-touch attribution. This matches the direction Paparo described, reflecting an ongoing shift.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.youtube.comRECEIPT #ERIC-B
JAN 03, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Benjamin Seufert“In 2024, I expect more mobile advertisers to lean into probabilistic attribution and modeled measurement solutions outside of SKAN, despite the ecosystem’s continued uncertainty.”
FOLLOW-UP
Industry coverage and vendor reports from 2024-2025 indicate a clear trend of increased adoption of probabilistic and modeled measurement solutions by mobile advertisers, particularly due to privacy constraints and SKAdNetwork limitations. This aligns with the prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev MemoRECEIPT #ERIC-S
NOV 26, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“I do not think this package, as drafted, will significantly reduce cookie consent friction. It is too timid, too complex, and leaves the most expansive EDPB interpretations intact.”
FOLLOW-UP
The 'digital omnibus' proposal is still under negotiation and not fully implemented. There is currently no observable reduction in cookie-banner friction across EU websites, which is directionally accurate with the prediction. However, the final outcome remains partially open.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
How EU Law Influences TechRECEIPT #PETER-
JAN 13, 2026
PREDICTION BY
Peter Adams“Data transparency and ownership will be key as AI complicates challenges that marketers already face around ad visibility and efficacy, especially amid the rise of zero-click search and AI-powered bots and agents that could muddy measurement waters.”
FOLLOW-UP
This prediction is about a future state in 2026, and it is currently impossible to verify if the 'muddying of measurement waters' has clearly occurred yet to the extent predicted.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Marketing DiveRECEIPT #MALORI
MAY 17, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Malorie Benjamin“understanding that the depreciation of cookies is already here in many capacities, she believes 2024 will be filled with many new solutions and providers bringing forward cookie-less measurement platforms.”
FOLLOW-UP
In May 2024, Benjamin predicted 2024 would see many new cookie-less measurement platforms emerge. This has indeed occurred, with numerous solutions being developed and implemented in response to privacy changes and cookie deprecation.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
CMSWire