— Topic —
4 receipts tracked • 63% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 03, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“Third: All scaled social media services will offer ad-free subscriptions in the EU.”
FOLLOW-UP
While Meta implemented a 'pay-or-okay' model, not all scaled social media platforms in the EU had implemented a fully comparable ad-free subscription model by the end of 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
mobiledevmemo.comRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“Prediction 2: Less than 10% of game monetization in the EU shifts to sideloaded apps or alternative in‑app payments as the DMA goes into effect.”
FOLLOW-UP
Regulatory pushback and friction limited a large-scale shift to sideloading or alternative payments in the EU, keeping the percentage below 10% in 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev Memo - 2024 predictions for mobile gamingRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“All scaled social media services will offer ad‑free subscriptions in the EU. … I believe that, by the end of 2024, every scaled social media platform will utilize a pay‑or‑okay model in the EU.”
FOLLOW-UP
While Meta implemented pay-or-okay, not all scaled social media platforms adopted a full ad-free subscription model in the EU by end of 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev Memo - 2024 predictions for mobile marketingRECEIPT #JASON-
DEC 17, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Jason Kint“I would fully expect that the E.U. and Brussels… are likely to put out their own decision, which could involve structural separation. That could happen anytime, frankly. It could happen literally tomorrow.”
FOLLOW-UP
The EU has continued its investigation and negotiations with Google, showing continued pressure. However, as of mid-2026, a full structural separation has not been forced, indicating Kint's prediction of it happening 'anytime' or 'literally tomorrow' was overly optimistic on timing.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
The Current