We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    Adtech

    8 receipts tracked • 43% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    8 receipts on Adtech

    Browse all →

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    JAN 23, 2023

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian O'Kelley
    “"We need to align these frameworks in the next six to nine months - no later than the end of 2023 - so we can incorporate them into the fabric of the industry and start driving substantial reduction. ... I believe there is a clear pathway to aligning on a single framework in this timeframe."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    No single framework arrived by the end of 2023 - or since. GARM and Ad Net Zero's Global Media Sustainability Framework only appeared as a draft at Cannes in June 2024, and GARM itself was dissolved two months later after the X lawsuit, leaving stewardship with Ad Net Zero and the landscape still fragmented (Digiday, August 2024).

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    BOK on Ads
    adtechadvertising-industry

    RECEIPT #CORY-T

    NOV 14, 2018

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Treffiletti
    “"The coming 12 months will see the big tech stacks snatch up their CDP toolsets. ... My prediction is, acquisitions in this space will heat up in Q1 and round out by Q3 2019."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The window came and went quietly: the big stacks (Adobe, Oracle, Salesforce) built rather than bought in 2019. The flagship CDP deal landed a year after his window closed - Twilio's $3.2 billion all-stock acquisition of Segment in October 2020. Direction right, timing wrong - and the timing was the prediction.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    The Media Online
    adtechdataadvertising-industry

    RECEIPT #DAVE-M

    JUL 12, 2018

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Dave Morgan
    “Data is not going to define the future of successful TV advertising, any more than it has defined digital advertising... Data is not the new oil.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Partially right. Data-driven buying did come to define TV's growth engine: CTV ad spend reached about $31.8 billion in 2024 (half the size of linear), and 43% of US advertisers were pulling linear budgets into programmatic CTV. But his deeper point aged well: "data as oil" hype deflated under privacy regulation, and creative, context and reach still separate winners from losers.

    connected-tv-ctvadtech

    RECEIPT #CORY-T

    NOV 19, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Treffiletti
    “OpenAI and Anthropic will quickly join the "power players" in digital advertising by further diving into native ad formats. ... They will attract more ad dollars and could easily become part of the top echelon of ad platforms in just a year or two.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Tracking well so far. OpenAI was piloting ads in ChatGPT in the US by March 2026 and expanded the pilot to the UK, Mexico, Brazil, Japan and South Korea by August 2026 (OpenAI). Anthropic has yet to introduce ads. The full call - both joining the "power players" within a year or two - stays open through 2027.

    ai-in-advertisingadtechadvertising-industry

    RECEIPT #PATRIC

    FEB 09, 2020

    Missed it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Patrick Dolan
    “P4A is working to support the enactment of comprehensive federal regulations to supersede the emerging patchwork of state rules, which cause significant harm to our industry.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Six-plus years on, the US still has no comprehensive federal consumer privacy law, and the patchwork Dolan warned about only grew - Indiana, Kentucky and Rhode Island's comprehensive laws took effect in January 2026 alone (IAPP). The Privacy for America federal push never made it out of Congress.

    privacyadvertising-industryadtech

    RECEIPT #MICHAE

    JAN 28, 2008

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Michael Bassik
    “Search advertising could garner closer to 80 percent [of 2008 online political ad spending - double Borrell Associates' estimate that 50 percent, or $10 million, would go to paid search].”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Bassik called the search skew before the cycle played out - and the whole category outgrew the forecasters. Obama's campaign alone spent about $16 million online, nearly Borrell's $20 million forecast for everyone, and the spend centered on search and list-building: new media director Joe Rospars reported 10-15x ROI on Google ads (ePolitics, Feb 2009).

    advertising-industrysearchadtech

    RECEIPT #CORY-M

    JAN 07, 2025

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Munchbach
    “In 2025, marketing workflows will be transformed by AI. In turn, the way CDPs deliver value will evolve to balance the human element and the automation, the privacy and possibility, and creativity and control.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Landed. By the end of 2025, SAS research ("Marketers and AI: Navigating New Depths") described generative AI as the new status quo for marketing departments worldwide, with leading adopters already moving into agentic AI. AI-assisted workflows went from experiment to default inside the year Munchbach named.

    ai-in-marketingai-in-advertisingadtech

    RECEIPT #HWANG-

    OCT 13, 2020

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Tim Hwang
    Paraphrase: The online ad market is a bubble that will pop, with consequences for the entire web economy that depends on it.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Hwang's 2020 thesis: programmatic ads = subprime mortgages. ATT (2021), cookie deprecation, MFA-site exposés, and the open-web display crash partially validated it — but the ad market grew rather than imploded, propped up by retail-media and walled gardens.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    FSG Originals
    adtechmarketing-ads