— Topic —

    Adtech

    4 receipts tracked • 75% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    4 receipts on Adtech

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    RECEIPT #ARI-PA

    OCT 06, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    If Ari Paparo had one piece of advice for everyone looking to buy ads today it would be to stop putting so much faith in measurements and look for other (read: cheaper) opportunities. I think it's very possible that will be the outcome. I would say 75% is my current estimate.

    FOLLOW-UP

    While outcome-oriented, cheaper attention channels have grown, and AI-driven modeling is replacing traditional attribution, most large buyers still invest heavily in measurement tooling and analytics. The core behavioral shift of broadly reducing 'faith in measurements' has not materialized at scale.

    RECEIPT #ARI-PA

    JUN 25, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ari Paparo
    The biggest trends in advertising right now are the move to advanced audiences and the use of deterministic first-party data.

    FOLLOW-UP

    First-party data and advanced audience solutions have indeed become central to advertising strategies, validating this as a dominant trend.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    jonathanmendezblog.com

    RECEIPT #ERIC-S

    NOV 26, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Eric Seufert
    The omnibus also introduces the idea of ‘automated and machine‑readable indications of user choice’—browser or OS‑level signals that: Must be implemented by web browsers within a couple of years. Must be respected by online services when: Consent is required, or Users exercise their right to object (e.g. to direct marketing based on legitimate interests). … Negative signals (opt‑out) Will be interpreted broadly: a single ‘no tracking’ browser setting will be treated as a global refusal of: All consent‑based tracking, and All direct‑marketing processing based on legitimate interests. Positive signals (opt‑in) Will likely be declared insufficient for valid consent in virtually all practical cases: DPAs will say consent must be ‘specific’ and ‘informed’ at the service level. A generic browser‑level ‘yes to tracking’ will be considered too coarse. So the browser/OS signal risks becoming a one‑way ratchet.

    FOLLOW-UP

    The 'browser/OS-level signals' concept has not yet been implemented broadly enough for its real-world effect on digital marketing to be conclusively judged. No EU-wide technical standard has been finalized, and regulators have not issued detailed interpretive guidance. The prediction remains unproven but plausible.

    RECEIPT #ERIC-S

    NOV 26, 2025

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Eric Seufert
    I do not think this package, as drafted, will significantly reduce cookie consent friction. It is too timid, too complex, and leaves the most expansive EDPB interpretations intact.

    FOLLOW-UP

    The 'digital omnibus' proposal is still under negotiation and not fully implemented. There is currently no observable reduction in cookie-banner friction across EU websites, which is directionally accurate with the prediction. However, the final outcome remains partially open.