Retail Media

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As of August 2026, it is too early to definitively evaluate the '75-80% AI reckoning' for agency media profits. Some early signs of AI buying tools and client experimentation are observable, but the quantitative impact on agency profits is not yet measurable. The descriptive portion about 40-45% direct ad spend is a contemporary assessment rather than a prediction outcome.

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This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 retail media growth are not yet available in the provided text.

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Seufert predicted a plateau or decline in 2025 after aggressive spending in 2024, stating the surge was a 'short-term shock'. Subsequent reporting in 2025-2026 indicated normalization of spending, aligning with his forecast that the growth would not be continuously rising.

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This is a qualitative prediction about a trend. While commerce media continues to be a focus, the degree to which it is 'leading' is subjective and not definitively confirmed or refuted by the provided materials.

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The specific 2028 numbers cannot yet be verified, but interim growth data (2024–Q2 2025) show accelerating growth in commerce media in the 19–24% range, which is on pace for the forecast.

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This prediction was made in June 2026. While retail media continues to grow and promises closer ties to sales, it is too early to definitively confirm that comprehensive, standardized, and easily accessible retail sales signals tied to media are 'finally available' across the industry as of the current date.

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Retail media and creator marketing have both seen significant growth. Industry practices and product launches support the idea that collaborations became more visible. However, a quantitative metric for 'more visibly' working together is not available in public sources to definitively confirm the prediction.

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Subsequent industry developments, increased investment in retail media, and the widespread adoption of AI for personalization and optimization confirm the trends Pritchard predicted regarding data/AI-driven, continuous, one-to-one, and commerce-linked brand building.

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Retail media networks, as exemplified by Amazon, Walmart, Instacart, and Uber, have continued rapid growth since 2024, validating the 'everything is an ad network' thesis in the context of privacy restrictions impacting social media advertising.

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Pritchard predicted a 'new S-curve of brand building' driven by data and AI, leading to 'one-to-one' consumer engagement and direct connection to retail, happening at a 'rapid pace' in various regions including the US. Since 2024, there has been a broad and observable acceleration in retail media, performance marketing, and data-driven commerce across the globe, with a focus on personalized consumer engagement and direct-to-consumer strategies. Major brands, including P&G, have significantly increased their investments and capabilities in these areas, confirming the predicted 'rapid pace' of transformation towards a more integrated media and commerce ecosystem.

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Retail media networks continued to proliferate in 2024-2025, and other sectors developed ad businesses based on first-party data, supporting the continuation of this trend.

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Walmart's integration of Vizio for retail media and CTV advertising signals its move into content-adjacent areas, consistent with 'edging into the content business.'

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As of mid-2026, there is no public evidence to verify this specific outsourcing scenario.

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Amazon has integrated its video and ad offerings, but a direct, broad UGC video platform to challenge YouTube has not clearly materialized.

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Retail media and cross-border e-commerce marketers like Temu and Shein continued to be cited as significant drivers of ad spending throughout 2024.

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Retail media networks expanded rapidly in revenue and product sophistication. CTV spending grew significantly, with YouTube and Netflix often described as a forming duopoly in streaming.

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Major streamers deepened or launched partnerships with retail media networks, creating clean-room style data collaboration. Measurement providers and streamers expanded multi-party data clean rooms and cross-publisher IDs for CTV. Streaming ad products increasingly marketed first-party viewer data and collaboration tools as a key differentiator.

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This is a prediction for 2028, which has not yet occurred. Intermediate data shows strong growth in retail media, validating the directional call, but the specific numerical targets for 2028 cannot be judged yet.

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This is a forecast for 2028, so no realized outcome is available yet. It will be verifiable in or after 2028 when ad mix data is available.

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The prediction for retail media reaching 19% of all ad spend is for 2028, which is in the future. While retail media has shown significant growth in 2024-2025, confirming the general trend, the specific numeric claim for 2028 cannot yet be verified.

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Several smaller or less-successful retail media efforts have slowed or wound down. The trade press has questioned if every retailer needs its own media network. There has been growing investment in multi-retailer retail media platforms and aggregators. This prediction is substantially accurate at the trend level.

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The prediction of aggregation players across retailers has largely materialized with the rise of platforms integrating multiple retail media networks. There are also signs of smaller retailers struggling or partnering, aligning with 'some retailers giving up' and 'a lot of noise about how it 'might not be worth the hassle'' due to complexity and ROI concerns. While not every retailer has definitively 'given up', the overall direction and trends described are visible.

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Large platforms and retailers have intensified investment and partnerships in CTV and retail media. However, as of mid-2026, there has not been a clearly 'defensive' acquisition of a major TV OEM or full CTV operating system by Amazon, Kroger, or a top streaming platform.

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Major RMNs have increasingly repositioned themselves as media businesses, investing in richer measurement, self-service tools, off-site and CTV inventory, and sales organizations targeting national brand media budgets, aligning with his conditional prediction.

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Off-site retail media grew significantly, and retail media strategies have increasingly emphasized upper-funnel and cross-channel approaches, validating the qualitative aspects of the prediction. While exact dollar figures are proprietary, the directional trends materialized as described.

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Retail media has indeed become a major segment of digital advertising, with significant growth and establishment of retail media networks by major retailers.

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Between mid-2024 and early 2026, AI shopping agents have not become a primary or dominant mode of commerce, consistent with Paparo's prediction that it would not happen anytime soon.

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The concept of agentic commerce is still developing, and whether retailers will continue to block AI agents or form narrowly scoped partnerships remains to be seen. The core motivation of controlling customer relationships and monetizing first-party data still holds true for major retailers like Amazon and Shopify.

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Public statements by large retail-media players in 2024 referenced strong double-digit ad/revenue growth, consistent with ~20%+ Q1 growth figure. Subsequent quarters showed slowing yet still strong retail-media growth, consistent with deceleration to high-teens.

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Ritson describes Reddit as already becoming a major ad platform and predicts its continued rise and essential role in marketing plans. Data cited in the article supports the 'already occurring' aspect of his prediction (growth up to early 2026). While recent public coverage aligns with Reddit's increasing ad footprint, it's too early for a definitive judgment on the broader marketing community's full adoption of his 'serious platform' recommendation.

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Retail media networks saw significant growth, with new platforms emerging and existing ones expanding, aligning with Seufert's "everything is an ad network" thesis.

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Amazon did not acquire adtech/martech startups in those categories in 2024. It expanded Amazon Ads organically (e.g., via AWS integrations, retail media growth). The year is not yet over, so this could still change.

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Walmart's retail media network (Walmart Connect) grew via partnerships (e.g., measurement deals with Nielsen, The Trade Desk), but no major strategic buys were reported. Growth continued (ad revenue ~$3.4B in FY2024), but prediction of "aggressive" 2024 consolidation did not materialize.