We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    Ad Spend

    14 receipts tracked • 70% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    14 receipts on Ad Spend

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    RECEIPT #BOB-HO

    MAY 21, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Bob Hoffman
    “In 2024, marketers will spend over $650 billion on online advertising. A substantial proportion of this - perhaps in the hundreds of billions - will be completely wasted.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The year 2024 is concluding, and while official final numbers for online ad spending and waste are not yet fully available, early indicators and ongoing industry discussions suggest a significant portion of digital ad spend continues to face challenges like fraud and inefficiency, aligning with Hoffman's concern about 'wasted' billions.

    AdvertisingAd SpendOnline AdvertisingAd Fraud

    RECEIPT #LOU-PA

    AUG 01, 2025

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Lou Paskalis
    ““The data budget will probably not eclipse the advertising budget, but it will grow much faster,””

    FOLLOW-UP

    Many marketers increased investment in data, martech, and analytics, with data/technology line items growing faster than pure media spend in multiple sectors. This aligns with his prediction that data budgets would "grow much faster" even if not surpassing ad budgets.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Beet.TV
    Data BudgetsAd SpendEconomic Uncertainty

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    APR 21, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “Advertising expenditures in the United States are projected to rise by 5.6% this year, reaching $360 billion, as reported by financial analyst Brian Wieser.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Wieser's initial forecast of 5.6% growth for U.S. ad expenditures (excluding political) was later revised upward to 7.2%, indicating the original prediction was too low.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Forbes
    Ad SpendUS Economy

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    JUN 01, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “It will reach $15.1 billion this year [2024] … With political spend incorporated, total advertising spend growth in the U.S. will amount to $384 billion in 2024.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    This is a full-year forecast for 2024. The final, audited figures for 2024 political ad spend are not yet available to confirm this prediction.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    www.adweek.com
    Political Ad SpendAd Spend

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    SEP 04, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “if [political spending is] added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits — 10.5% — if included.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    This is a full-year forecast for 2024 including political ad spend. The final figures for 2024 are not yet available to confirm this prediction.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    www.mediapost.com
    Ad SpendPolitical Ad Spend

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    SEP 04, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    This is a revised full-year forecast for 2024, made in September. While Q1 and Q2 growth were strong, the final outcome for the full year 2024 is still evolving.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    www.mediapost.com
    Ad Spend

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    SEP 04, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “Citing a “much stronger than expected” second‑quarter expansion of 9.6%, Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. …which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits — 10.5% — if included. As for political ad‑spending growth, Wieser now says it will be ‘helpful’ to the U.S. ad economy — especially for local TV ad spending — but actually will not expand as much as previous comparable cycles.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    These forecasts became the industry benchmark for 2024, and no public reports indicate a significant deviation from these predictions. The political ad spend estimation also aligns with later observations of its impact.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    MediaPost
    Ad SpendPolitical Ads

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    MAR 25, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “Wieser now projects the U.S. ad economy will expand 5.6% this year — up from the 4.3% he originally projected in September 2023, and up from 5.2% in his last upward revision in November 2023.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Wieser later revised this forecast upward multiple times, eventually projecting 7.2% growth for 2024 (excluding political), indicating the market performed better than this initial 5.6% forecast. The forecast was directionally correct in predicting growth, but the magnitude was too low.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    MediaPost
    Ad SpendUS Economy

    RECEIPT #BOB-HO

    JAN 01, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Bob Hoffman
    “In 2024, marketers will spend over $650 billion on online advertising. A substantial proportion of this – perhaps in the hundreds of billions – will be completely wasted.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The prediction for 2024 online ad spend (over $650 billion) is broadly consistent with market forecasts and data. The prediction of 'hundreds of billions' wasted is a plausible critical estimate supported by high ad fraud and inefficiency figures but lacks a single empirically confirmed measurement.

    Online AdvertisingAd SpendAd Waste

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    APR 21, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “Focusing specifically on retail media, Wieser predicts that this channel will soar $82 in ad by 8, which would represent about 19% of total advertising spending.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    This is a forecast for 2028, so no realized outcome is available yet. It will be verifiable in or after 2028 when ad mix data is available.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Forbes
    Retail MediaAd SpendMarket Share

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    APR 21, 2024

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “Wieser forecasts that by 2028, digital advertising will account for 76% of total ad spending, up from 64% in 2023.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    This is a forward-looking forecast for 2028, so no outcome is available yet. It will be verifiable once 2028 global ad mix data is public.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Forbes
    Digital AdvertisingAd SpendMarket Share

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    APR 21, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “It’s important to note that this increase does not take into account political advertising, which Wieser anticipates will total $15.5 billion across all platforms.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Comprehensive, final, all-platform U.S. political ad spend for the full 2024 cycle is not yet summarized in a single public figure that explicitly matches Wieser’s coverage definition. Public trackers have released estimates but are methodologically different or partial.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Forbes
    Political AdvertisingAd SpendUS Market

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    APR 21, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    “Advertising spend is likely to be up 5.6% in the U.S. this year to $360 billion, according to financial analyst Brian Wieser.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Full-year 2024 actual U.S. ad spend data are not yet fully consolidated in one definitive public figure due to varying definitions and reporting lags across industry trackers.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Forbes
    AdvertisingAd SpendUS Market

    RECEIPT #PAUL-H

    JUN 01, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Paul Hiebert
    “Madison and Wall expects U.S. ad spend, excluding political advertising, to grow 6% in 2025 compared to 2024.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    This is a forward-looking prediction about full-year 2025 ad spend, so as of mid-2026 only partial data would exist, and full authoritative 2025 final spend data are not yet available from standard industry sources. Therefore, the accuracy of this 6% growth forecast cannot currently be assessed.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Adweek
    Ad Spend