— Topic —

    Nvidia

    3 receipts tracked • 100% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    3 receipts on Nvidia

    Browse all →

    RECEIPT #BEN-TH

    JAN 01, 2025

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ben Thompson
    Training will continue to matter, and Nvidia’s current architecture, including high-speed compute, large amounts of high-bandwidth memory, and high-speed networking, will likely continue to dominate. Answer inference will be a meaningful market, albeit a relatively small one, and speed from chips like Cerebras or Groq … will be very useful. Specifically, agentic inference will be the largest market by far, because that is the market that won’t be limited by humans or time.

    FOLLOW-UP

    Nvidia’s architecture continued to dominate AI training. Alternative inference-focused hardware gained visibility for specific scenarios. Industry rhetoric increasingly emphasized 'agentic' AI workloads, aligning with predictions.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    stratechery.com

    RECEIPT #ALEX-K

    APR 09, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Alex Kantrowitz
    Big Tech’s Alex Kantrowitz doesn’t believe Google or Intel’s chips will cut into Nvidia’s lead.

    FOLLOW-UP

    As of late 2024 and mid-2025, Nvidia has maintained its dominant market position in AI accelerators, with high demand for its GPUs. Google and Intel's offerings have not significantly eroded Nvidia's lead in the way some had predicted. Nvidia's revenue and market performance support this outcome.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    CNBC Closing Bell

    RECEIPT #BEN-TH

    MAY 05, 2026

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Ben Thompson
    These concerns were well-founded in the 2023 time-period when that Article was written: that was a time when AI, thanks to ChatGPT, had hit the mainstream, but the largest share of compute still went to training. Training required all of the things that Amazon lacked, particularly the ability to network large numbers of Nvidia GPUs together into one coherent system. In such a system the most important capability was horizontal networking between chips, so that you could update weights during training, a step that needed to happen serially. It was absolutely the case that cloud providers like Microsoft or Oracle or the neoclouds, which implemented full Nvidia solutions, instead of the standalone HGX racks that AWS favored, were much better suited to training large language models. That is still the case, by the way. What has changed is that training is no longer the biggest AI compute market; inference is, thanks not only to increased AI adoption, but also because of fundamental changes in terms of how AI works.

    FOLLOW-UP

    In May 2026, Thompson states that the shift from AI training to inference is already underway and has changed the competitive landscape for cloud providers. The market for AI inference is still evolving, so it's too early to declare a definitive outcome.

    ORIGINAL SOURCE

    Stratechery