IPhone

“I wrote that Apple was in its middle age in 2018, when the company was 42 years old, a solidly millennial definition. My argument then was that Apple was increasingly — and rightly — behaving like an incumbent in a market that was no longer growing. That meant that future iPhone growth would come from (1) more expensive iPhones, (2) selling more devices to existing iPhone users (AirPods, Watches, etc.), and (3) accelerating the revenue it derived from services for iPhone users. That is exactly what the company did over the ensuing few years...”

“I believed that Apple would surely raise prices this year; that $999 iPhone Pro is now $177 cheaper than in 2020 in real terms, and given the fact that Apple was increasing the bill of materials on the lower end phones in particular (bumping them to 8GB RAM, and onto the latest TSMC process), surely they wouldn’t accept the hit on margins on top of the loss in value of their longstanding iPhone pricing. In fact, though, I had it right in 2022: Apple held the line on prices once again; I should have realized the company — like myself! — really is in a different stage.”