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5 receipts tracked • 100% industry hit rate
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RECEIPT #SIR-MA
MAY 09, 2011
PREDICTION BY
Sir Martin Sorrell“Social networks like Facebook will become one of the main destinations for brand advertising over the next decade as marketers follow audiences online.”
FOLLOW-UP
By the early 2020s, Facebook and other social platforms had become among the largest global ad sellers and main destinations for brand advertising, making Sorrell's prediction accurate.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Financial TimesRECEIPT #MARK-Z
OCT 23, 2012
PREDICTION BY
Mark Zuckerberg“Over the long term, we believe that the opportunity to monetize mobile and feed-based ads is at least as big as, and likely bigger than, the opportunity we’ve had on desktop.”
FOLLOW-UP
Within several years, the majority of Facebook’s ad revenue came from mobile feed ads, exceeding desktop revenue, clearly realizing Zuckerberg's prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Facebook, Inc., Q3 2012 Earnings Call TranscriptRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUL 23, 2013
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“We see Facebook capable of sustaining ad revenue growth in the 30–40% range over the next several years as social advertising budgets continue to expand.”
FOLLOW-UP
Facebook’s ad revenue grew at high double-digit rates from 2013 through roughly 2016–2017, in line with the stated 30–40% range for several years.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Barron’s Tech Trader Daily (quoting Wieser’s note)RECEIPT #MARY-M
MAY 27, 2015
PREDICTION BY
Mary Meeker“There is a $25B+ opportunity in the U.S. for Internet — led by mobile and social — to gain share from print and other legacy media as ad spend catches up to time spent.”
FOLLOW-UP
Social platforms became core budget lines, and global and U.S. social ad spend grew far faster than most offline channels, validating the directional prediction of substantial share gain for social and mobile.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
2015 Internet Trends Report, KPCBRECEIPT #MARY-M
MAY 28, 2014
PREDICTION BY
Mary Meeker“Social and mobile are under-monetized relative to time spent, suggesting significant ad growth ahead.”
FOLLOW-UP
Social ad spend did grow rapidly and became one of the largest digital categories, consistent with Meeker's prediction of 'significant ad growth ahead'.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
2014 Internet Trends Report, KPCB, slide deck