— Topic —

    AI in Advertising

    15 receipts tracked • 71% industry hit rate

    Generative AI, agentic media buying, creative AI.

    — Filed —

    15 receipts on AI in Advertising

    Browse all →

    RECEIPT #CORY-T

    NOV 19, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Treffiletti
    “OpenAI and Anthropic will quickly join the "power players" in digital advertising by further diving into native ad formats. ... They will attract more ad dollars and could easily become part of the top echelon of ad platforms in just a year or two.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Tracking well so far. OpenAI was piloting ads in ChatGPT in the US by March 2026 and expanded the pilot to the UK, Mexico, Brazil, Japan and South Korea by August 2026 (OpenAI). Anthropic has yet to introduce ads. The full call - both joining the "power players" within a year or two - stays open through 2027.

    RECEIPT #CORY-M

    JAN 07, 2025

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cory Munchbach
    “In 2025, marketing workflows will be transformed by AI. In turn, the way CDPs deliver value will evolve to balance the human element and the automation, the privacy and possibility, and creativity and control.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Landed. By the end of 2025, SAS research ("Marketers and AI: Navigating New Depths") described generative AI as the new status quo for marketing departments worldwide, with leading adopters already moving into agentic AI. AI-assisted workflows went from experiment to default inside the year Munchbach named.

    RECEIPT #MARK-R

    OCT 23, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Mark Read
    “Broadly speaking, we will start to see more of an impact of GenAI on our revenues in the next year. I think there's nothing to suggest so far that that will be negative, and certainly at the moment it's contributing positively to our revenues.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Read expected GenAI to have a larger, positive effect on WPP revenue in 2025. WPP's preliminary 2025 results report that total revenue fell 8.1% and like-for-like revenue fell 3.6%, but do not separately disclose GenAI's contribution. The company-wide decline cannot establish whether GenAI was a net revenue contributor. Keep this evolving until direct outcome data is available.

    RECEIPT #CINDY-

    FEB 26, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Cindy Rose
    “Our intention is to stabilise the business, return to organic growth, create capacity to invest in the future and deliver attractive returns for our shareholders. WPP will become a single company, streamlined into four operating units across four regions, all unified by our pioneering agentic marketing platform, WPP Open.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Success test: whether WPP returns to organic growth under the four-unit structure. First checkpoint: H1 2026 results.

    RECEIPT #PHILIP

    JUN 12, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Philippe Krakowsky
    “The primary risk of AI-powered marketing is "reversion to the mean" - widespread use of the same generative AI models across the industry "would lead to an era of creative stagnation, mediocrity and boring uniformity." The counter: "getting folks on the agency side who have really good judgment, and who are as much craftspeople as they are knowledge workers, and having them interface with the machines."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    The "AI slop" critique of advertising creative became mainstream through 2025-26, partially validating the stagnation warning; whether agency judgment is the unlock remains open.

    RECEIPT #DAVID-

    APR 16, 2013

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    David Levy
    “I'm saying this for the third time. Facebook will do search. And [more importantly] they'll do it well.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Called Apr 16, 2013. Graph Search itself flopped and was effectively retired by 2019, but the underlying claim — that Facebook would build serious search/discovery products — was vindicated by Reels search, AI-assisted feed ranking, and Meta AI's in-app search now serving billions of queries. Right thesis, wrong product vehicle.

    RECEIPT #DAVID-

    JUL 19, 2012

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    David Levy
    “Is it conceivable that Facebook knew/knows that the ~$4b desktop ad business was not the future of the company and began to focus its resources on sponsored stories/mobile ads that do show up in mobile feeds and can therefore be monetized (and apparently more effectively than their desktop counterparts)? You bet it is… implying that the company has no business model is extremely shortsighted.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed Jul 19, 2012 — two months after the FB IPO flop, with consensus calling Facebook structurally unmonetizable on mobile. Mobile went from ~14% of FB ad revenue in Q2 2012 to ~49% one year later and >80% by 2015; FB stock 4x'd by 2015. The "no mobile business model" thesis was definitively wrong, exactly as Levy argued.

    RECEIPT #TAMEKA

    DEC 31, 2025

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Tameka Kee
    “By mid-2026, more than half of brand creative going through major holdco agencies will involve generative AI in some part of the production pipeline — even if the final spot looks "traditional."”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Q1 2026 holdco earnings calls (WPP, Publicis, Omnicom/IPG) confirmed generative AI is now in production workflows for the majority of creative briefs, but most disclosed only partial-pipeline use — closer to ideation and storyboarding than full final-asset generation.

    RECEIPT #IDIL-C

    APR 28, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Idil Cakim
    “Content, this is where I think it gets interesting for marketers, will still be queen because screenbased media and music pop up as, you know, top of the activities when it comes to spending leisure time. So, people are still looking for that entertainment. And that means that advertisers will have more chances to connect with their customers, but they will need to be AI savvy when delivering because AI will push even more content and more choices to people.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    RECEIPT #MISHA-

    APR 28, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Misha Leybovich
    “I think that I don't know how long it's going to take, 5 years, 10 years, but performance advertising, I'm not even talking about brand advertising, that's a different thing cuz it's I'm talking about anything where you get a ton of shots on goal and a like a and a clear signal did this work or not through a conversion. For performance advertising specifically, I don't see room for humans in this.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    RECEIPT #JEFF-S

    APR 28, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jeff Sundheim
    “I think that number [AI first creative spend] is still pretty low. But I think it's going to grow very quickly. As as advertisers realize that it's not only a time saver, but it's also something that can distinguish themselves uh, in terms of creating really cool content.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Filed for tracking. Outcome to be evaluated as the timeline plays out.

    RECEIPT #BERKOW

    NOV 19, 2012

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    David Berkowitz
    “I predict that search will be dead in 2020.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Search wasn't dead in 2020 — Google search revenue actually grew. But Berkowitz's broader thesis (predictive recommendations replacing "head" and "tail" queries, behavioral data displacing typed queries) is exactly what AI Overviews, ChatGPT, and Perplexity are now doing. He publicly graded himself in 2024: "I was wrong. And I was right. And I was right for the wrong reasons."

    RECEIPT #BERKOW

    MAR 22, 2024

    Called it.

    PREDICTION BY

    David Berkowitz
    “While streaming services once felt like the death knell for TV advertisers but now are ramping up ad inventory and rolling out ad-supported plans, we'll see that happening in AI too.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Within 18 months, every major consumer AI platform Berkowitz pointed to was experimenting with ads. Microsoft Copilot rolled out ads in chat answers, Perplexity launched sponsored questions in November 2024, and OpenAI publicly began exploring ad-supported tiers in 2025. The "subscription-only AI" model he questioned has effectively given way to the streaming-style hybrid he predicted.

    RECEIPT #BERKOW

    JAN 15, 2026

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    David Berkowitz
    “Not everyone needs to buy everything through AI for it to become a healthy sales channel. This year, many of the sources of friction are going away. Consumers may be surprised at first that they can buy that weather-sealing tape without leaving the conversation. Soon enough, they'll expect it.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    Made at NRF 2026 as in-chat checkout was just rolling out across ChatGPT (Instant Checkout), Perplexity (Shop with Pro), and Amazon Rufus. The thesis is testable through 2026–2027: does conversational commerce hit a "healthy sales channel" share, or stall like Alexa shopping did?

    RECEIPT #OWYANG

    OCT 08, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Jeremiah Owyang
    “Your company will interact with customer AI Agents: We’ll be dealing with AI agents acting on behalf of customers. ... Agent-run organizations will be your customer and even competitor: Fully autonomous, agent-run entities may someday become both your customers and competitors.”

    FOLLOW-UP

    AI agents became a new class of customer in B2B contexts, with significant direct engagement as evidenced by Salesforce's Agentforce success, but did not emerge as a distinct consumer-facing customer segment for direct marketing.