We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    2024 Forecast

    6 receipts tracked • 50% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    6 receipts on 2024 Forecast

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    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    APR 21, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““Advertising expenditures in the United States are projected to rise by 5.6% this year, reaching $360 billion, as reported by financial analyst Brian Wieser.” AND “For this year, digital ad revenues are anticipated to increase by 10.7%, nearly doubling the overall growth in advertising expenditures.” AND “Focusing specifically on retail media, Wieser predicts that this channel will soar ... which would represent about 19% of total advertising spending.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    The overall 2024 ad growth forecast of 5.6% was later revised upwards by Wieser. However, the specific predictions for digital ad revenue growth (10.7%) and retail media's share (~19%) for 2024 lack outcome data in the provided material, making their accuracy indeterminate.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad MarketDigital AdvertisingRetail Media2024 Forecast

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    JUN 05, 2024

    Story still evolving.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““Still, he forecast “massive” political adspend to the tune of $15.1bn for the year, up from $14.1bn in 2020.” AND “It’s important to note that this increase does not take into account political advertising, which Wieser anticipates will total $15.5 billion across all platforms.” AND “However, according to Wieser’s forecasts, only 14% more spending on political advertising will take place in 2024 compared to this same time in 2020.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    Wieser forecast "massive" 2024 US political ad spend of $15.1B, up from $14.1B in 2020 - the $14.1B being his own model's in-scope 2020 figure (GroupM's December 2020 estimate), not the AdImpact tracked-buys total ($9B in 2020, ~$11B final in 2024 per NBC News). On tracked buys 2024 did set a record, consistent with "massive", but the narrower scope means the $15.1B cannot be cleanly judged against AdImpact's number.

    Political Advertising2024 Forecast

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    SEP 04, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““U.S. ad spending is expected to grow 7.2% to $381 billion in 2024, excluding political ad spending” AND “Including political spending, U.S. advertising is expected to grow 10.5% to $397 billion.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    This was Wieser's final 2024 forecast documented in the provided material. Later reports indicate he assessed the total ad revenue including political closer to 8.6%-9% in March 2025, which is below the 10.5% including political cited here, suggesting a modest downward adjustment based on final data.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2024 Forecast

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    JUN 05, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““The latest estimates put growth at 6.7% in Q2, with an upgrade for the full year from 5.6% to 6.3%.” AND “He thus predicted Q3 and Q4 2024 to grow “at a slightly slower pace on the back of relatively difficult comparables”.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    The full-year forecast of 6.3% was later upgraded to 7.2% (excluding political) and 10.5% (including political) by September 2024. The qualitative prediction of a 'slightly slower pace' in Q3/Q4 is supported by later articles reiterating this expectation, though specific realized quarterly data is not provided to confirm the exact degree.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2024 ForecastAd Pace

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    MAR 25, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““The industry analyst now expects 5.6% growth in 2024, up from a prior 5.2% annual growth forecast.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    This 5.6% forecast was later revised upward by Wieser himself multiple times, reaching 7.2% (excluding political) and 10.5% (including political) by September 2024, indicating it was an intermediate, later superseded forecast.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2024 Forecast

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    JAN 03, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““he predicts the US ad industry will grow by roughly 5% (minus political spending) and 9% with political spend””

    FOLLOW-UP

    Wieser repeatedly revised his 2024 forecast upward throughout the year, with his final forecast settling well above this initial prediction (e.g., 7.2% excluding political, 10.5% including political, by Sept 2024). This indicates his initial view underestimated the market's strength.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2024 Forecast