We've Got Receipts

    — Topic —

    2025 Forecast

    4 receipts tracked • 50% industry hit rate

    — Filed —

    4 receipts on 2025 Forecast

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    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    SEP 04, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““Wieser believes things will naturally decelerate in the back half and eventually level out to a more typical, mid-single-digit growth rate – down from 7.2% overall in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025.” AND “Last year, Wieser predicted that national TV ad spending would decrease by 2.3% in 2024, a slight blip between larger periods of decline in 2023 and 2025. However, now it looks more like a decrease of 1.2% for the year.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    The 5.3% 2025 overall ad growth forecast was part of an evolving sequence of predictions, later revised down (to 4.5%, then 3.6%) and then up (to 6.0%). The updated -1.2% national TV ad spend decline for 2024 cannot be verified with the provided information, as final 2024 national TV figures are absent.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2025 ForecastNational TV

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    JUN 04, 2025

    Too early to tell.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““Brian Wieser has boosted the outlook for U.S. ad-spending growth this year to 6.0%. That's nearly double the percent change he forecast in March…””

    FOLLOW-UP

    This is the latest 2025 forecast documented. Final realized 2025 ad spending data is not yet available to evaluate its accuracy.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2025 Forecast

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    MAR 18, 2025

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““Wieser now estimates U.S. ad spending growth will rise 3.6% in 2025, down from his 4.5% forecast in December 2024, and his 5.3% benchmark in September 2024.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    This 3.6% forecast was later superseded by a significant upward revision to 6.0% in June 2025, demonstrating it was an intermediate and not final view.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2025 Forecast

    RECEIPT #BRIAN-

    DEC 10, 2024

    Partially right.

    PREDICTION BY

    Brian Wieser
    ““he’s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%.””

    FOLLOW-UP

    This 4.5% forecast for 2025 was subsequently downgraded to 3.6% in March 2025, and then surprisingly upgraded to 6.0% in June 2025. This shows the initial prediction was not stable and evolved with new data.

    Ad GrowthUS Ad Market2025 Forecast