— Topic —
6 receipts tracked • 58% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #SCOTT-
JAN 05, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“India Is the New China”
FOLLOW-UP
India continued as a fast-growing economy and key market for tech/media/advertising. However, China remained a much larger economy and ad market in absolute terms, meaning India served more as a key growth market than a full 'replacement' for China in scale.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Whitney Tilson's DailyRECEIPT #SCOTT-
JAN 05, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“In 2024 expect to see a boom in housing sales volume. … Reduced interest rates, coupled with pent-up demand (new jobs, kids, life events), will drop like prunes through the colon of housing in 2024.”
FOLLOW-UP
Housing sales volume increased from 2023 lows, but not to the extent that would be described as a 'boom'.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.profgalloway.comRECEIPT #SCOTT-
JAN 05, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“U.S. Inflation Drops Below the Fed’s Target of 2.5%. … Look for this downward momentum to continue.”
FOLLOW-UP
Inflation moderated but did not consistently drop below 2.5% in 2024, oscillating around 2.5-3%.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.profgalloway.comRECEIPT #SCOTT-
JAN 05, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“U.S. Inflation Drops Below the Fed’s Target of 2.5%. In a little over a year, inflation has gone from 9% to 3%. Look for this downward momentum to continue.”
FOLLOW-UP
Inflation trended lower than 2022 highs but did not decisively drop below 2.5% for the year in the way implied by the headline prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.profgalloway.comRECEIPT #SCOTT-
JAN 05, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Scott Galloway“India Is the New China. In 2023, India became the world’s most populous country. In 2024 that population growth will register in economic terms.”
FOLLOW-UP
India’s economic and strategic importance to global technology and media firms increased and became more visible in 2024, in line with his “register in economic terms” prediction. However, India has not “replaced” China in global manufacturing or consumer markets; the phrase “new China” is rhetorical rather than literal.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.profgalloway.comRECEIPT #BEN-TH
JAN 28, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Ben Thompson“One of the most paradoxical aspects of AI is that while it is hailed as the route to abundance, the most important financial outcomes have been about scarcity. … Meanwhile the most obvious commercial opportunity remains large tech companies that already have scaled cloud and ad businesses, business models that are uniquely compelling in the short and medium term.”
FOLLOW-UP
Financial gains have accrued to cloud and AI infrastructure providers and large platforms with integrated ad/cloud businesses, consistent with the prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Stratechery