— Topic —
6 receipts tracked • 92% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“Prediction 3: A large proportion of the 2021‑2022 vintage of mobile gaming studios will quietly shutter.”
FOLLOW-UP
Subsequent market conditions, including post-IDFA headwinds and funding challenges, led to many smaller mobile gaming studios from the 2021-2022 period downsizing or shutting down, supporting the prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
mobiledevmemo.comRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 10, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“My prediction is, is in 2024 Microsoft launches their mobile gaming store and they also, uh, you know, in parallel they launch some kind of ad product that allows for distribution even in their own store or across all…”
FOLLOW-UP
Microsoft did not launch a full mobile gaming store or a dedicated ad product for such a store in 2024. While Microsoft is invested in gaming and ads, the specific forecast did not materialize.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Deconstructor of Fun YouTube channelRECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 10, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“…prediction is is in 2024 Microsoft launches their mobile gaming store and … they also uh you know in parallel they launch some kind of ad product that allows for distribution even in their own store or across all…”
FOLLOW-UP
Through the end of 2024, Microsoft did not launch a widely documented, dedicated, Microsoft-branded mobile gaming advertising network or product on the scale of Apple Search Ads or Google Ads specifically for mobile game distribution. Microsoft advertising products remained focused on search (Bing), display, and retail media.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
YouTube VideoRECEIPT #ERIC-B
JAN 10, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Benjamin Seufert“In 2024, I expect consolidation to continue and for the creation of breakout mobile hits by small, independent studios to remain rare.”
FOLLOW-UP
The mobile gaming market in 2024-2025 saw continued consolidation, with major hits dominated by established publishers and few breakout successes from small, independent studios, consistent with the prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev MemoRECEIPT #ERIC-B
JAN 10, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Benjamin Seufert“Even if macro conditions improve in 2024, I do not expect a broad-based recovery in user acquisition spending for mobile games this year.”
FOLLOW-UP
Industry reports and analyses for 2024 show that user acquisition (UA) spending for mobile games remained constrained and selective, with no broad-based recovery, aligning with the prediction of limited rebound despite potential macro improvements.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev MemoRECEIPT #ERIC-S
DEC 19, 2023
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“I believe the advertising yield management (mediation) space will become more competitive in 2024, with publishers seeking better optimisation methods for their inventory given the challenging mobile gaming operating environment. [...] As that genre [hypercasual gaming] swiftly contracts and casual publishers seek better yield on their inventory, mediation platforms will need to compete on optimization offerings, which may allow upstarts to enter a space that has been ossified for the past several years in terms of offerings.”
FOLLOW-UP
The mediation space saw heightened competition, but major "upstarts" didn't disrupt the dominance of existing players by end-2025.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
mobilegamer.biz