— Topic —
3 receipts tracked • 83% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #ERIC-S
JAN 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Eric Seufert“All scaled social media services will offer ad‑free subscriptions in the EU. … I believe that, by the end of 2024, every scaled social media platform will utilize a pay‑or‑okay model in the EU.”
FOLLOW-UP
While Meta implemented pay-or-okay, not all scaled social media platforms adopted a full ad-free subscription model in the EU by end of 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Mobile Dev Memo - 2024 predictions for mobile marketingRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUL 21, 2022
PREDICTION BY
Brian Morrissey““[It’s] hard to believe that a reasonable ad product will cause a massive deterioration of the ad business… Ads+subs is bound to become the default model.””
FOLLOW-UP
The prediction that 'Ads+subs is bound to become the default model' is directionally accurate for much of the publisher market. Most successful digital publishers by the mid-2020s combine subscription income with advertising, and examples like The Wall Street Journal, Puck, and Punchbowl align with this structure.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Innovation MediaRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUL 21, 2022
PREDICTION BY
Brian Morrissey““Rebundling is bound to occur with the slow move towards simpler subscription offerings.””
FOLLOW-UP
The prediction that rebundling would occur is confirmed by examples like Stratechery's move to bundle products into 'Stratechery Plus' in September 2022, and wider industry trends of subscription-driven media brands consolidating offerings by 2023-2025.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Innovation Media