— Topic —
2 receipts tracked • 50% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 04, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Brian Wieser has boosted the outlook for U.S. ad-spending growth this year to 6.0%. That’s nearly double the percent change he forecast in March when he downgraded his outlook … to 3.6%.”
FOLLOW-UP
This was a mid-year upgrade based on H1 2025 performance, marking a significant reversal from earlier cautious stances. Full-year 2025 actuals are not yet available to judge the 6.0% forecast.
EVIDENCE
RECEIPT #BRIAN-
JAN 03, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Although the relative highs of 2023 will be hard to repeat, he predicts the US ad industry will grow by roughly 5% (minus political spending) and 9% with political spend.”
FOLLOW-UP
Direction right, magnitudes low on both counts. Wieser predicted roughly 5% ex-political growth and 9% growth including political for 2024. By December 2024 he had revised his own ex-political estimate up to 9.0% - the fifth consecutive upgrade and more than double his initial 4.3% benchmark - and including political spending the year came in around 10.5%. The ad market did not talk itself into a downturn, but his January numbers underestimated the year by several points.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdExchanger – “Don’t Talk Yourself Into A Downturn In 2024”